The Institute for Employment Research (IAB) has released its September readings for Germany’s labour market barometer. The overall index rose by 0.1 points to 99.6, though the forward-looking employment component softened.
- The headline IAB Barometer reached 99.6 points in September.
- The employment outlook component declined to 99.3 points, while the unemployment component rose to 99.9.
- Figures below the neutral 100-point threshold indicate trends and outlook rather than real-time job loss figures.
Diverging Trends Between the Two Components
According to the IAB, the component reflecting employment prospects dropped by 0.1 points to 99.3. In contrast, the unemployment forecast component climbed by 0.4 points to 99.9, driving the overall index upward.
Enzo Weber, head of research at the IAB, assesses employment prospects as weaker than the unemployment trajectory. He attributes this divergence to demographic contraction in the domestic labour force potential. The institute also points to persistent economic uncertainty and ongoing structural challenges, particularly across the industrial sector.
How the Barometer Is Calculated
The IAB compiles the indicator through a monthly survey of all local employment agencies of the Federal Employment Agency (Bundesagentur für Arbeit). One component forecasts seasonally adjusted changes in unemployment over the coming three months, while the second tracks employment trends. The composite index represents the arithmetic mean of both components.
The institute notes that index values are subject to revision as seasonal adjustment calculations are updated. The European Labour Market Barometer stood unchanged at 99.9 points in September.