Mediendienst Integration published an analysis by criminologists Susann Prätor, Yvonne Krieg, and Dirk Baier comparing police statistics with survey data on crime in Germany. The authors specifically examine violent offenses, emphasizing that recorded case numbers are not equivalent to proven crimes.
- Police statistics record suspects and incidents known to law enforcement; suspicion does not equate to legally established guilt.
- A 2024 youth survey in Lower Saxony showed differences in self-reported violence by nationality, but the finding reflects that specific sample, age cohort, and research definition.
- The authors highlight the reporting propensity, age and gender composition, and socioeconomic factors when interpreting disparities.
What Police Crime Statistics Record
The authors use the term Hellfeld to designate crimes known to police and recorded in the Police Crime Statistics (Polizeiliche Kriminalstatistik, PKS). Dunkelfeld refers to committed but unrecorded offenses, studied primarily through population surveys. The criminologists note that roughly 90% of police-registered offenses become known via victim and witness reports, and reporting willingness varies significantly depending on situational circumstances.
The PKS tracks suspects (Tatverdächtige), not individuals convicted by a court of law. It also categorizes by legal citizenship: individuals without German citizenship are recorded as non-German regardless of whether they were born in Germany or recently arrived. This differs from having an immigrant background (Migrationshintergrund).
According to 2025 PKS data, excluding immigration, asylum, and free movement violations, non-German residents were registered as suspects approximately 2.6 times more frequently than German citizens per 100,000 residents aged eight and older residing in Germany. This ratio represents a specific PKS metric and does not reflect all offenses actually committed. The authors note that in certain regulatory categories, such as immigration law violations, eligibility for committing an offense is legally confined to non-citizens.
Findings from the Youth Survey
To evaluate unrecorded offenses, the authors analyzed the 2024 Lower Saxony Youth Survey (Niedersachsensurvey), encompassing 9,202 adolescents with an average age of approximately 15. Behavioral findings reflect self-reports. Based on the survey’s violence index, 8.6% of German teenagers and 13.8% of non-German teenagers reported at least one violent incident over the preceding 12 months—a ratio of approximately 1.6.
This finding applies to sampled adolescents in Lower Saxony and cannot be generalized to Germany’s population as a whole. Furthermore, the survey’s index captures lighter forms of delinquency and does not correspond directly to statutory violent felony definitions in the PKS.
Comparing police suspect numbers for male minors without German citizenship to German male peers yields an initial violent crime ratio of 3.5. When adjusting for differential reporting propensity, that ratio drops to 1.7. This is the authors’ model adjustment based on survey data, not an exhaustive count of all committed offenses.
Structural Explanations for the Disparities
The researchers highlight several interlocking explanatory factors: age and gender distributions, socioeconomic status, and divergent likelihoods of being reported to authorities. In their analysis of the Niedersachsensurvey, non-German adolescents reported positive attitudes toward violence more frequently, though such attitudes remained a distinct minority view; the authors caution against interpreting this as a characteristic of an entire culture or demographic group.
The findings document differences across administrative and survey metrics without establishing that citizenship or migration themselves cause criminality. Specifically, the ratios 2.6, 1.7, and 1.6 represent distinct measurements, datasets, and population groups, and cannot be cited interchangeably.